We were all hoping the winter snow and spring rains were going to bring Charlevoix's water level back toward normal, but we’ve been disappointed again this year. The Army Corps of Engineers, which is charged with forecasting these levels, now reports that the high level for this summer was 13 inches below the long-term average.

The Corps actually projects a range of levels, with a five-inch drop the most likely result of current conditions. But it could be more, maybe eight inches lower, or it could return to the level of last summer. Such are the vagaries of predicting how much rain may fall on the Great Lakes and how fast as well as how hot it will be and thus how much water will be lost to evaporation.

Because of the direct connection to Lake Michigan via the Pine River and Round Lake, Charlevoix is effectively at the same level as Michigan and Huron, which are similarly linked through the Mackinac Straits. The Corps does not make a separate projection for Lake Charlevoix.

Historically, the levels are at the lowest part of their annual cycle in January, February and March. This year’s mid-winter level was a few inches above the same time last year. But last year's levels were up only a bit from the lows of 2008. And by the end of August, Charlevoix was more than a foot below the long term average.

The current forecast is that the lake will remain a foot or more below the long-term average well into next year. That will still be a foot above the historic lows of 1964, but a whopping 4.5 feet below the historic highs of 1986.

Until the middle of the 19th Century, Lake Charlevoix was about four feet higher than Lake Michigan. But a channel was cut after the Civil War to allow deep-draft commercial and recreational vessels to navigate between Charlevoix, Round Lake and on to Lake Michigan. Although the need for a commercial channel has all but vanished, there are no current plans to fill the man-made connection and return Charlevoix to its more stable lake levels and its original independence from the Great Lakes.

Click here for a detailed Army Corps of Engineers graph of Michigan-Huron lake levels for 2008-2010.